The Effects of Global Populism: Assessing the Populist Impact on International Affairs Have you noticed how political climates around the world seem to be shifting in favor of populism? From the United States to Brazil, populist movements are gaining traction. But what does this mean for international relations and global politics? The rise of populism isn’t just a national issue—it has profound implications for international affairs. Understanding the effects of global populism on global diplomacy, foreign policy, and economic stability is crucial for navigating the complex political landscape of today.
Over the past decade, contemporary politics has increasingly entered an era defined by global populism. While populist movements have been studied for over a century in the social sciences, it is only recently that populist leaders have come to power across such a broad range of countries, spanning both the global North and South. The 2016 Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom and the rising political prominence of new populist parties and movements in Europe, the Americas, and Asia highlight the growing phenomenon of a “global rise of populism.”
Alongside a renewed focus on the domestic causes of populist success and its impact on national societies, there has been a growing body of research addressing the international dimensions of populism. These studies explore topics such as the international components of populist discourse, the performance of populist leaders on the global stage, and the foreign policy approaches of populist governments. Moreover, populism has been central to discussions regarding challenges to the “liberal script” and the crisis of the liberal international order (LIO). Many populists have sought to undermine the LIO from within, often promoting illiberal alternatives. However, this emerging research has yielded fragmented findings, pointing to populism’s varying effects on international politics but failing to offer a comprehensive explanation for these differences. Foreign and security policies differ significantly across populist governments, and so do the consequences of populism for global cooperation and regional integration. There is still a lack of a systematic, theory-driven understanding of the diverse impacts of populism on foreign policy and international order.
This special section of International Affairs seeks to bridge these gaps by systematically exploring three key international effects of populism on politics, policies, and polities. The contributions featured in this section present evidence from a range of geographic contexts, reflecting the global nature of populism. In the following introduction, we propose a theoretical framework to explain variations in populist foreign policies and their approach to international institutions. We will also summarize the findings of the articles in this section and conclude by discussing their policy implications, as well as identifying areas for future research and unresolved questions.
What Is Global Populism?
Global populism refers to political movements that claim to represent the “common people” against the so-called elites or establishment. These movements often arise in reaction to perceptions of inequality, corruption, or political disconnect. Leaders like Donald Trump in the United States, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, and Viktor Orbán in Hungary have gained support by promoting nationalist, anti-establishment rhetoric.
Populism is often characterized by:
- Anti-elitism: The belief that political, economic, and social elites control the system to the detriment of ordinary people.
- Nationalism: A strong focus on prioritizing national interests, often at the expense of global cooperation.
- Charismatic Leadership: Leaders who present themselves as the voice of the people, bypassing traditional political institutions.
The Effects of Populism on Global Diplomacy
Populist leaders tend to adopt more isolationist or nationalist foreign policies, which can affect global cooperation. These policies may challenge long-established diplomatic norms and alliances. Some of the most significant impacts include:
1. Strain on Multilateralism
Populist leaders often express skepticism toward international institutions like the United Nations, NATO, or the European Union. For instance, the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change during Trump’s presidency highlighted how populist policies can undermine international cooperation on global issues.
- Case in Point: Brexit, championed by populist leaders in the UK, demonstrated how populist movements could lead to the dismantling of long-standing international agreements.
2. Trade Wars and Protectionism
Global populism often goes hand in hand with protectionist trade policies. Leaders may impose tariffs, withdraw from free trade agreements, or prioritize national economic interests over global partnerships.
- Example: The U.S.-China trade war during Trump’s administration, where tariffs were raised on billions of dollars’ worth of goods, significantly impacted global trade dynamics.
3. National Security and Immigration Policies
Populist leaders often adopt stricter immigration policies, which can result in friction between countries. These policies, while aimed at protecting national security, can lead to humanitarian crises, diplomatic tension, and changes in refugee policies.
- Example: President Donald Trump’s travel ban on several predominantly Muslim countries strained U.S. relations with key allies in the Middle East and beyond.
Economic Implications of Populism on Global Markets
Populism can also significantly affect global markets and economic stability. The focus on nationalism can lead to:
- Currency Fluctuations: Populist policies may lead to volatility in national currencies as investors react to policy uncertainty.
- Stock Market Reactions: Populist moves that disrupt global trade or alienate key international partners often cause market instability.
- Investment Shifts: Increased protectionism may discourage foreign investment, as companies may be wary of volatile political environments.
Key Statistic:
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), populist policies in Europe and the U.S. contributed to a slowdown in global economic growth, which decreased by approximately 0.5% in 2019.
Populism’s Role in Geopolitical Tensions
The rise of populism can exacerbate existing geopolitical tensions. Leaders with populist agendas may view international relations as zero-sum games, prioritizing their own country’s gains over cooperative solutions.
- Example: Populist governments in Eastern Europe have often resisted EU policies on issues like migration, leading to increased tensions within the union.
Additionally, populist governments may pursue more aggressive foreign policies to rally domestic support, leading to potential conflicts.
Solutions and Strategies for Navigating Populism’s Impact
While global populism presents challenges, there are ways to mitigate its effects and promote a more cooperative international environment:
1. Strengthening Diplomacy
Global leaders can enhance diplomatic efforts to manage populist leaders and their policies by emphasizing common interests, such as security, trade, and climate change.
2. Promoting Trade Partnerships
Trade agreements that benefit multiple nations can be crucial in maintaining open markets and countering protectionist sentiments. Multilateral organizations must adapt to ensure that they meet the needs of modern economies while respecting national sovereignty.
3. Fostering International Solidarity
In addressing issues like immigration, global cooperation and humanitarian aid can help manage the challenges posed by stricter national policies. Countries should collaborate to find solutions that balance security concerns with humanitarian responsibilities.
Conclusion
The rise of populism presents significant challenges for international affairs, but it also offers opportunities for reform and adaptation. By understanding the key effects of populism on diplomacy, trade, and security, global leaders can navigate these turbulent times and work toward a more balanced, cooperative global system. While populism is likely to continue shaping political landscapes, focusing on shared global interests and building stronger alliances will be essential in mitigating its negative impact.
FAQs
1. How does populism affect international trade?
Populism often leads to protectionist policies and trade wars, disrupting global trade and economic stability.
2. What is the impact of populism on diplomacy?
Populist leaders tend to challenge multilateralism, which can strain international diplomatic relationships and agreements.
3. How does populism influence national security?
Populist policies typically lead to stricter immigration and security measures, which can cause diplomatic tensions.
4. Can populism affect the global economy?
Yes, populism can result in currency fluctuations, stock market instability, and reduced foreign investment.
5. What role does populism play in geopolitics?
Populist leaders often prioritize their nation’s interests, which can exacerbate geopolitical tensions and conflict.
6. What can be done to manage the effects of populism?
Strengthening diplomacy, promoting trade partnerships, and fostering international solidarity can help manage populism’s effects on global relations.
